Stability - in terms of Coaches & QBs, as filtered thru the Redskins and 49ers (since 1981)

Got to thinking pretty hard about the whole concept of "stability" in regards to a football team, with thoughts of fired Son Shanahans swirling around my head, and the goofball weirdness of there being an actual "quarterback battle" between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Chris Cooley's comments about remaining patient had me thinking about stability in a nerd ass context, so rather than work on editing a short story for a book deadline I've got at the end of the month, I dorked out with the internet, cross-compiling head coaches and starting QBs, to see how many games they worked together (thus showing stability), and how they did in the playoffs, when applicable. And being the Redskins are hosting the San Francisco 49ers - another storied franchise - I decided to do it for both teams, starting in 1981, when Bill Walsh won his first Super Bowl with Joe Montana, and Joe Gibbs coached his first year in the NFL.
So first, let's look at head coach/starting QB combos that won Super Bowls...

GMS	TEAM	COMBO	PERTINENT DATA
103	49ers	Bill Walsh/Joe Montana	'81-'88, 3 Super Bowls won
85	49ers	George Seifert/Steve Young	'89-96, 1 Super Bowl won
68	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Joe Theisman	'81-'85, 1 Super Bowl won
62	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Mark Rypien	'88-'92, 1 Super Bowl won
28	49ers	George Seifert/Joe Montana	'89-'90, 1 Super Bowl won
14	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Doug Williams	'87-'89, 1 Super Bowl won

First off - and perhaps I'm a homer for this - but you have to give Gibbs some daps for what a feat it is to win the Super Bowl with all different QBs. Actually, the further we go through this nerded out statfest of mine, the more apparent that'll be. But even with only 14 games together for Gibbs/Williams, you have to remember that's almost a full NFL season, as I'm only counting regular season games in that first column. And actually, the further we go through this, you'll see how rare THAT actually is. But let's then go through head coach/starting QB combos that made the playoffs since 1981 for these two teams (not counting the Super Bowl winners above)...

GMS	TEAM	COMBO	PERTINENT DATA
58	49ers	Steve Mariucci/Jeff Garcia	'99-'02, 1-2 in playoffs
33	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Mark Brunell	'04-'06, 1-1 in playoffs
33	49ers	Steve Mariucci/Steve Young	'97-'99, 2-2 in playoffs
31	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Jay Schroeder	'85-'87, 2-1 in playoffs
27	Redskins	Norv Turner/Brad Johnson	'99-'00, 1-1 in playoffs
6	49ers	Bill Walsh/Steve Young	'87-'88, 0-1 in playoffs
3	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Todd Collins	'07, 0-1 in playoffs

Two very interesting lines from these that prove the stability factor... First off, a pair of Hall of Famers in Bill Walsh and Steve Young, when together, did not even win a playoff game, though they did make it. And a pair of career mediocrities in Norv Turner and Brad Johnson, when given enough time together, actually won a fucking playoff game. I don't even remember that one. I must've been passed out drunk in glee or something. But now let's look at head coach/starting QB combos that worked together for 10 games or more that never made the playoffs...

GMS	TEAM	COMBO	PERTINENT DATA
46	Redskins	Norv Turner/Gus Frerotte	'94-'98
32	Redskins	Jim Zorn/Jason Campbell	'08-'09
30	49ers	Mike Nolan/Alex Smith	'05-'07
20	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Jason Campbell	'06-'07
20	49ers	Mike Singletary/Alex Smith	'09-'10
16	Redskins	Steve Spurrier/Patrick Ramsey	'02-'03
14	Redskins	Norv Turner/Trent Green	'98
14	Redskins	Marty Schottenheimer/Tony Banks	'01
14	49ers	Mike Singletary/Shaun Hill	'08-'09
13	Redskins	Norv Turner/Heath Shuler	'94-'95
13	49ers	Dennis Erickson/Jeff Garcia	'03
13	Redskins	Mike Shanahan/Donovan McNabb	'10
12	49ers	Dennis Erickson/Tim Rattay	'03-'04
10	Redskins	Richie Petitbon/Mark Rypien	'93

First thing that jumps out at me from this list is out of ten coach/QB combos that have combined for 10 games or more for San Francisco since 1981, half of those combos went to the playoffs at least twice, and three of them won the Super Bowl. For the Redskins, you get over 10 games together, and that combos gone to the playoffs about 40% of the time, winning the Super Bowl 20% of the time. However, you get above 20 games together, since 1993, and that's happened for the Skins five times, resulting in a whopping two playoff appearances. Zorn/Campbell had two full years together, and I have no idea why the fuck Norv Turner/Gus Frerotte got so much opportunity and never amounted in even a playoff game. Not even a token wild card berth one year along the way. But there are four combos for the Redskins since 1994 that were together for a full regular season (at least 16 games) that never made the playoffs. And actually, just with those four combos it's 114 total games (just over 7 full seasons) dedicated to coaching/quarterbacking tandems that never even made the playoffs. Seven whole fucking seasons, lost.
(Also, it is shocking how resilient Alex Smith has been, and equally shocking that the 49ers have not been able to get into the playoffs since the early 2000s. The NFC West is a terrible division.)
But now let's take a stroll down the memory lane of the damned, through coaching/QB combos for these two teams that never amounted to shit, not even 10 games together. And be forewarned, this is a terrible list full of the failures of the past decade, for both franchises...

GMS	TEAM	COMBO	PERTINENT DATA
9	49ers	George Seifert/Elvis Grbac	'95-'96
8	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Patrick Ramsey	'04-'05
8	49ers	Mike Nolan/J.T. O'Sullivan	'08
8	Redskins	Mike Shanahan/Rex Grossman	'10-'11
7	Redskins	Steve Spurrier/Shane Matthews	'02
7	49ers	Dennis Erickson/Ken Dorsey	'04
7	49ers	Jim Harbaugh/Alex Smith	'11
6	49ers	Bill Walsh/Jeff Kemp	'86
6	49ers	George Seifert/Steve Bono	'91
6	49ers	Mike Nolan/Trent Dilfer	'07
6	49ers	Mike Singletary/Troy Smith	'10
5	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Stan Humphries	'90
5	Redskins	Steve Spurrier/Tim Hasselbeck	'03
4	Redskins	Richie Petitbon/Rich Gannon	'93
4	Redskins	Norv Turner/John Friesz	'94
4	Redskins	Steve Spurrier/Danny Wuerffel	'02
4	49ers	Mike Nolan/Tim Rattay	'05
3	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Ed Rubbert	'87
3	Redskins	Norv Turner/Jeff Hostetler	'97
3	49ers	Steve Mariucci/Steve Stentstrom	'99
3	Redskins	Terry Robiskie/Jeff George	'00
3	49ers	Mike Nolan/Ken Dorsey	'05
2	49ers	Bill Walsh/Matt Cavanaugh	'84-'85
2	49ers	Bill Walsh/Mike Moroski	'86
2	Redskins	Richie Petitbon/Cary Conklin	'93
2	Redskins	Norv Turner/Jeff George	'00
2	Redskins	Marty Schottenheimer/Jeff George	'01
2	49ers	Mike Nolan/Cody Pickett	'05
2	49ers	Mike Nolan/Shaun Hill	'07
2	Redskins	Mike Shanahan/John Beck	'11
1	49ers	Bill Walsh/Bob Gagliano	'87
1	Redskins	Joe Gibbs/Jeff Rutledge	'90
1	49ers	Steve Mariucci/Jim Druckenmiller	'97
1	49ers	Steve Mariucci/Ty Detmer	'98
1	49ers	Mike Nolan/Chris Weinke	'07

Really, there's a lot to make me want to put a pistol in my mouth off this list, but the two (or three) to highlight are Shanahan/Grossman (which has been deemed a failure at 8 games), Shanahan/Beck (way down the list at 2 games, so yes perhaps more patience is needed), and Harbaugh/Smith at 7 games, but will most likely be at 16 by the end of the year, and jumping up to the combos that have made the playoffs. In one season. Which goes against the argument for patience, as all these lists make it pretty clear that even if you remain patient, it's pretty evident pretty early on whether we're onto something that's going to work or not. But when you look back up at those 7 whole seasons of total games wasted on combos in D.C. that never made the playoffs, it's easy to see why maybe Redskins fans have lost their patience. We're not talking a one week reaction here - we're talking a long and painful history of either terrible combinations of talent/brain trusts, or allowing ones that never achieve any on-field successes to go on and on and on.
But wait, while I'm wilding the fuck out with the calculator, let's take every current head coach/starting QB combo going into this weekend, and break them down by games together, into the categories of Have Won Super Bowl, made the playoffs, and just trying to find a way...

GMS	TEAM	COMBO	PERTINENT DATA
150	Patriots	Bill Belichick/Tom Brady	'01-'11, 3 Super Bowls
110	Giants	Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning	'04-'11, 1 Super Bowl
87	Saints	Sean Payton/Drew Brees	'07-'11, 1 Super Bowl
66	Steelers	Mike Tomlin/Ben Roethlisberger	'07-'11, 1 Super Bowl
54	Packers	Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers	'08-'11, 1 Super Bowl
71	Chargers	Norv Turner/Phillip Rivers	'06-'11, 2-4 in playoffs
55	Ravens	John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco	'08-'11, 3-3 in playoffs
53	Falcons	Mike Smith/Matt Ryan	'08-'11, 0-2 in playoffs
38	Jets	Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez	'09-'11, 4-2 in playoffs
38	Bears	Lovie Smith/Jay Cutler	'09-'11, 0-1 in playoffs
18	Eagles	Andy Reid/Michael Vick	'10-'11, 0-1 in playoffs
62	Texans	Gary Kubiak/Matt Schaub	'07-'11
32	Buccaneers	Raheem Morris/Josh Freeman	'09-'11
21	Lions	Jim Schwartz/Matthew Stafford	'09-'11
20	Bills	Chan Gailey/Ryan Fitzpatrick	'10-'11
8	Panthers	Ron Rivera/Cam Newton	'11
7	49ers	Jim Harbaugh/Alex Smith	'11
7	Bengals	Marvin Lewis/Andy Dalton	'11
7	Titans	Mike Munchak/Matt Hasselbeck	'11
7	Cowboys	Jason Garrett/Tony Romo	'11
7	Cardinals	Ken Whisenhunt/Kevin Kolb	'11
7	Browns	Pat Shurmur/Colt McCoy	'11
6	Jaguars	Jack Del Rio/Blaine Gabbert	'11
5	Colts	Jim Caldwell/Curtis Painter	'11
3	Dolphins	Tony Sparano/Matt Moore	'11
2	Vikings	Leslie Frazier/Christian Ponder	'11
2	Redskins	Mike Shanahan/John Beck	'11
2	Broncos	John Fox/Tim Tebow	'11
1	Seahawks	Pete Carroll/Charlie Whitehurst	'11
0	Raiders	Hue Jackson/Carson Palmer	'11

Super Bowl winners are pretty apparent, but also of note is Aaron Rodgers had not even won a playoff game until last year. But there was already a long history between he and Mike McCarthy.
Playoff teams are interesting in a couple points. Firstly, you can see why Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, who sometimes catch shit for not being elite, are able to rest on their laurels, because both have sustained success in the playoffs. Much like his stint in Washington, I really have to wonder how the fuck Norv Turner still has a job in San Diego, being they've had that nucleus together for a long time with really nothing to show for it. But even when you get lower on the playoff teams list, with the Bears, Chiefs, and Eagles, it seems that persistence at QB and coach does equal eventual success, even if it's only a wild card berth into the playoffs.
Then you look at the combos that have not made it. The four that have more than a full season together are all contenders this year. (But how the fuck has Kubiak/Schaub kept their job, when you look at comparable combos?) But a lot of the young combos (Panthers this year, Jets, Chiefs, Ravens, Falcons, Lions in recent years) have a coach and QB come in together, to sort of philosophically usher in a new era. I guess that's what Donovan McNabb was supposed to be last year for the Redskins. Somebody must have forgot to kick the tires on that dude though. Was it Bruce Allen or the Shanahans? Or was Snyder still involved? I don't know. But it set us back.
Other seemingly successful combos, such as the 49ers or Bengals, have either had a stable head coach or stable QB (somewhat I guess in regards to Alex Smith). Mike Shanahan, at this point, can't be considered a stable coach in D.C. So maybe you give him more time. But the model you're emulating by drafting a new QB, after time spent already on a new coaching regime, is the Bengals, who are a contender for the playoffs, sure, but nobody sees them as an actual championship team. But at this point, that's what we're hoping to philosophically emulate by letting the Shanahans stay on next year and get a new QB and start over.
I think the ultimate point of what has ultimately been a waste of two hours of my life is, yes, you are right noble counterpoint, that stability and patience is necessary to building a good team. But in the case of the Redskins, they don't necessarily have a good track record of showing they've acquired a good brain trust nor quarterback to have patience in. And Shanahan/Beck/Grossman - regardless of what a dumbass Dan Snyder is - has not really done anything to earn that respect. If Beck gets some games in and starts to tighten up towards the end of the season, sure, go get 'em next year bro. But even if John Beck doesn't suck, I have a hard time believing Mike Shanahan is going to stick with that guy as his QB for this team going into next year. Which means after two years here in D.C., basically Mike Shanahan will just be the latest guy to waste my fucking time as a Redskins fan, because he's going to be looking for a new QB, and the past two years ultimately have meant very little towards building stability or an actual playoff caliber team. That is highly frustrating, and that's why Redskins fans are pissed. It ain't gonna get fixed in a week, or two weeks, or even by next spring. And from all this statistical hoo-ha I've just thrown out at you, it's easy to see why we don't really believe it's going to get any better any time soon. History supports our anger.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Guess who just got named the starter for this Sunday's game against the Seahawks?

Yep. Alex Smith is BACK as the starting Quarterback.

The "Franchise" Quarterback, shown in the first unfairly unflattering file photo I found via Google image search

This requires a special tirade that is now in the works. I was already to go with a nice little post about the franchise being stuck in limbo; 4-8 yet not mathematically eliminated from the division title/playoffs, unable to go forward with Head Coach Mike Singletary because he's overmatched, over his head, and has clearly already provided all the bounce/improvement to this team that he possibly could, but also unable to fire him mid-season because there's no one to replace him and besides, firing the last coach mid-season is how we ended up with the current head coach. Thus he remains as lame duck, waiting for the axe to fall at the end of the season.

But no. I got a whole new angle to work with now. Alex Smith is back. Suddenly Neil's entry about his Lions reminding him of the film Groundhog Day takes on new meaning for me. I have definitely seen this movie before. I have definitely lived this day before. I can't believe I thought, dared to hope, that three weeks ago I had seen Alex Smith throw his last pass as a San Francisco 49er.

As bad teams always do, the excuse for a quarterback change is "he gives us the best chance to win right now." See, it's because he knows the playbook better than Troy Smith. Troy came to the team late and his knowledge of the book is limited. Even though he's been on the team for 3 months now, has been the starter for 6 weeks, which is plenty of time for a coaching staff that knows what it's doing (unfortunately, the 49ers staff doesn't) to actually TEACH and dare I say the word, COACH, a player in such a way that his knowledge of the playbook expands, he plays better, and the team thus "has a better chance to win."

Nevermind that Troy Smith is 3-2 as a starter knowing his small section of the playbook while Alex Smith is 1-6 knowing the whole thing by heart.

An irate and incredulous caller to the sports talk show (there's going to be a LOT of those today) took one of my points and ran with it; this team, this 49er organization, for whatever reason, eliminates any and all competition for Alex Smith's starting job. Shaun Hill has a commanding winning percentage as starter? Benched then exiled to Detroit via free agency. Nate Davis looks good in preseason? Thrown under the bus by the coach, essentially called a lazy dummy, cut and re-signed to the practice squad after being buried so bad nobody else wanted him. Troy Smith comes in due to injury and actually WINS his first two games? Coach Singletary is unhappy with his "reckless" play at QB (translation: he improvises, runs out of the pocket, and makes GOOD things happen that don't involve handoffs up the middle), proclaims he's going to "reel him in" and he is eventually benched in favor of an Alex Smith that may not even be 100% recovered from his shoulder injury, but not before "reeling in" Troy Smith leads to not only the most embarrassing, but most boring to watch loss in my lifetime of watching 49er football, a 21-0 home shutout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that even I slept through the end of.

Anyone who looks better than Alex must be removed from the equation; the #1 overall pick can not be a bust. 2 interceptions + 2 fumbles = 5 wins. Big Brother Dr. John York Is Watching You. The Party Can Never Be Mistaken.

I WANT WINNERS!
Alex Smith Is Our Starter. Alex Smith Has Always Been Our Starter.
(His Five Year Plan didn't work any better than The Alex Smith one has)

Oh, and by the way, Alex makes his return to the field in a home game. The last time he played in front of the home crowd? He was booed mercilessly and people chanted for David Carr, a.k.a. Anyone But Alex Smith. This one is going to sound ugly. If Alex's first pass is incomplete, look out. If it's an interception? Poor Alex Smith may just end up like Poor Alexandr Romanov. Banjoman may well lead an angry charge of riotous fans onto the field.

Stone Cold Assassin. Revolutionary.
Seriously, don't fuck with this dude. He was around for the Super Bowls.
Wore the same shirt, cape, and beanie hat too.
Might even beat out punter Andy Lee for Team MVP and/or the Len Eshmont Award, too.