Monday, April 23, 2012

Using Statistical Evidence to Make Myself Sad About RGIII

So it is fairly apparent without a shadow of a doubt that it will be #1 OVERALL QB ANDREW LUCK TO THE COLTS and then #2 OVERALL QB ROBERT GRIFFIN III TO THE REDSKINS, and I am equally hype-geeked and deathly afraid of this reality. And then the interwebs had this amazing (and depressing) for me today that said only three times has the QB been both 1st and 2nd pick, and those picks went something like this:

1993 - #1 Drew Bledsoe to the Patriots, #2 Rick Mirer to the Seahawks
1998 - #1 Peyton Manning to the Colts, #2 Ryan Leaf to the Chargers
1999 - #1 Tim Couch to the Browns, #2 Donovan McNabb

Now it is obvious from that entire sampling of previous samples that the Redskins stand a 67% of having this completely fuck them over, and the good 33% is only Donovan McNabb, who also sucked in a Redskins uniform, albeit at a more advanced age. In fact, look at that, between these six guys, not only were three outright busts, but the good half of the pairs has a combined one Super Bowl victory. One. So even if we leaned beyond the negative to the positive, it’s still not that positive, not necessarily the franchise-changing return to glory that I think myself and most Redskins fans are hyping ourselves up for.

So hey, since 1993 plus this year will make 20 drafts, I figured – without advance scouting them – I would look through the other 16 drafts first two drafted QBs, and see how often the second-picking team got over on the first one. So let us begin…

1994 – Heath Shuler drafted 3rd overall to Redskins, Trent Dilfer drafted 6th overall to Buccaneers: Well, Dilfer won a Super Bowl, though not with the Bucs, so the second team got over on this one. Only problem is the first team that screwed it up was the Redskins. 0-1 in favor of RGIII saving my life’s fall Sundays.

1995 – Steve McNair drafted 3rd overall by Oilers, Kerry Collins drafted 5th overall by Panthers: You have to consider the Oilers/Titans the winner in this pair, which means, statistically speaking, that Andrew Luck will one day be dead because some slut shot him. It also means the second-picking team picked a fucking loser, who in all likelihood was an alcoholic because of Jerry Sanduskey type things. 0-2, against RGIII saving things, but plus one for Andrew Luck dying tragically.

1996 – Tony Banks drafted 42nd overall by Rams, Bobby Hoying drafted 85th overall by Eagles: Holy fuck man, only two QB dudes taken in the first three rounds? Can you even imagine that in today’s NFL? It’s hard to believe this happened in the days of facemasks and television. Like I would expect this to be black-and-white footage and the NFL films guy going, “And then in the third round the Philadelphia Eagles drafted farmboy Bobby Hoying from Ohio State University, who had only been across the state line four times in his life.” You know who was even better drafted at QB that year? Nobody. Just a shit-storm of guys like Danny Kanell and Jon Stark and Spence Fisher. But I heard of Tony Banks, and don’t even remember Bobby Hoying, so again, score the ledger against RGIII, 0-3.

1997 – Jim Druckenmiller drafted 26th overall by 49ers, Jake Plummer drafted 42nd overall by Cardinals: I think Druckenmiller is in jail for statutory rape or something, and Jake Plummer was killed in action in Afghanistan, so he is an honorable man. 1-3, the score for RGIII saving my Sundays, and why must the good always die young?

2000 – Chad Pennington drafted 18th overall by Jets, Giovanni Carmazzi drafted 65th overall by 49ers: Oh fuck, we are doomed. 1 good, 4 bad.

2001 – Michael Vick drafted 1st overall by Falcons, Drew Brees drafted 32nd overall by Chargers: Finally, a satisfactory example of the second QB drafted being far superior to the first one. I am a Vick apologist, and even I couldn’t justify saying he is somehow better than Drew Brees. 2-4, moving upwards.

2002 – David Carr drafted 1st overall by Texans, Joey Harrington drafted 3rd overall by Lions: Man, Carr never amounted to much, but Harrington was an outright embarrassment. Another mark against RGIII’s draft slot, but shit man, if Andrew Luck only ends up as good as David Carr, and that is somehow better than RGIII, we are all fucked. 2-5.

2003 – Carson Palmer drafted 1st overall by Bengals, Byron Leftwich drafted 7th overall by Bengals: Top guy wins again. And yet has accomplished very little in his NFL career. I am feeling worse and worse with each example. 2-6, against RGIII being great, and probably about 4-4 against either he or Luck being worth a shit.

2004 – Eli Manning drafted 1st overall by Chargers, Philip Rivers drafted 4th overall by Giants: Finally, an example where both QBs picked first are good, although I fucking hate Rivers, and Manning too to be honest. But Manning is a gritty little cornhead, and he’s won a couple Super Bowls. He was also the first QB picked, not the second. 2-7.

2005 – Alex Smith drafted 1st overall by 49ers, Aaron Rodgers drafted 24th overall by Packers: You know, I would like to hang my hopes on this example, except when you look at the 25th overall draft pick and see “QB Jason Campbell, to the Redskins.” So even the positive examples recent NFL draft history has for me also mock my hopes and desires with terrible terrible memories. 3-7, I guess, cruel cruel universe.

2006 – Vince Young drafted 3rd overall by Titans, Matt Leinart drafted 10th overall by Cardinals: I guess Young would be considered better. I guess. I could also get all racialist and just make this a positive mark for RGIII, since he’s also a black QB from the state of Texas. But that wouldn’t be fair of me, would it? 3-8.

2007 – JaMarcus Russell drafted 1st overall by Raiders, Brady Quinn drafted 22nd overall by Browns: Haha, I’m not even sure who to say is better in this one. I guess Quinn because I think he’s still holding a clipboard somewhere, whereas JaMarcus is wiping the cough syrup off his mouth as he heads into his favorite soul food buffet joint on Sunday afternoons. 4-8, and if every second-picked QB from here on out, that’ll mean I stand a 50/50 statistical chance of not having RGIII ruin my life.

2008 – Matt Ryan drafted 3rd overall by Falcons, Joe Flacco drafted 18th overall by Ravens: Look, these guys are two white ass fratboy date rapist peas in a pod, so mix and match them. But my honest opinion, which may have been altered to help my psychic hopes here, I’d rather have Flacco. 5-8.

2009 – Matthew Stafford drafted 1st overall by Lions, Mark Sanchez drafted 5th overall by Jets: Obviously, Stafford is better, and also another mocking example of my fate as a Redskins fan, as the Skins did all they could to trade up to get Sanchez, who would’ve sucked even worse in burgundy and gold than he does in green and white. 5-9, against RGIII being better than Luck.

2010 – Sam Bradford drafted 1st overall by Rams, Tim Tebow drafted 25th overall by Broncos: This will go against popular opinion probably, but I’d prefer Tebow. He’s won a playoff game; Bradford hasn’t. In fact, before me and Neil quit working on the All-ACLB team to just go catfishing in the Ohio River and do codeine together (Louisville, Kentucky, is our “in-between point”), I had written a long and eloquent defense of Tim Tebow. Oh wait, maybe we used part of it in the Pro & Con thing we did. Who can fucking remember? So much insane gibberish, so little memory. Anyways, Tebow is better, for the sake of my argument. 6-9.

2011 – Cam Newton drafted 1st overall by Panthers, Jake Locker drafted 8th overall by Titans: Newton certainly had a bigger impact on the league last year, shocking everybody. Locker may end up being better in the long run, but I also may end up having a 12-inch dick if science figures out how to grow adult dicks. In other words, the future don’t mean shit to me right now. 6-10, positive to negative examples in favor of Robert Griffin III being better than Andrew Luck, much less leading the Redskins back to glory. Oddly enough, 6-10 is very much like a normal Redskins record at the end of the season, so it all makes perfect sense. I am now depressed enough to go watch some Harry Nilsson on YouTube and then cry myself to sleep. “Nothing lasts forever, and I will always love you…”

No comments: