Reading From The Necronomicon; How the NFL Breaks Ties

If you've read this site long enough, you know our man Neil, the chronicler of all things Detroit Lions, periodically describes the NFL's Rule Book as akin to the necronomicon. And, really, when its given the sports world such esoteric nonsense as "completing the process of the catch" and "the tuck rule", byzantine footnotes so specific and narrow one can't help but be convinced they were added on the spur of the moment to screw your team over. After all, nobody's heard of this shit before, and nobody usually hears about it again (has the tuck rule EVER come up since it gave Tom Brady a do-over on that fumble that by rights cost them that playoff game? No, of course not). Other insanity, like how the ground cannot cause a fumble, even when it clearly does (though it can cause an incompletion, according to that "complete the process" nonsense), or how one molecule of the nose of the football intersecting the plane of the very front of the goal line even for a fraction of a second is a touchdown, yet the reverse is true on a safety (both ball and player must be entirely behind the goal line), or all the weird shit about guys being in the air vs on the line regardless of where the ball is on a potential touchback of a punt, and the 83 if -> then Boolean phrases that go into determining whether an incomplete pass is Intentional Grounding or not, even though the most intentional of all groundings, the clock-stopping spike, is always exempt, unless you hesitate a second and take a step back and look around before doing so (as Caleb Hanie found out about a month ago when he cost the Bears a game doing this exact thing) almost seems normal in their constant use relative to this bizarre one time only shit.

Other fun stuff we learned about the NFL rule book this year: Michael Crabtree once caught a ball with one foot in bounds and one foot in the air, lept up, came back down on the same foot, then the other landed out of bounds. i.e., two feet in bounds, but not both feet in bounds. It turns out this does not count as a catch; it must specifically be both feet. And one knee or one ass cheek or one hand is equivalent to two feet (but only if the hand lands out of bounds) with regards to landing on the turf, likewise an elbow equals feet, and only foot fetishists like Rex Ryan spend this much time thinking about feet and equating other things to feet. We also learned during a Thursday Night game that joint possession of a pass belongs to the offensive player over the defensive player UNLESS an unrelated part of the defensive player hits out of bounds while maintaining joint possession of the ball, in which case both players and the ball are all 100% completely out of bounds even if no part of the offensive player touches out of bounds, and the pass is incomplete instead of a touchdown, go fuck yourself San Diego, and in the ancient sunken city of Ry'leh dread Pete Rozelle lies dreaming.

So it's really no surprise that, as we near the final week of the season, the NFL's rules and regulations once again emulate this equal parts arcane and insane tome as it comes time to settle Playoff Seeding via a series of tiebreakers. The tiebreakers are important, of course, and have wide reaching consequences, especially in the AFC, where the Steelers could still be the #1 seed and have home field throughout, although they currently sit as #5 and are looking at playing all their playoff games on the road. FOUR teams could still end up as that final wild card team; The Bengals, The Raiders, The Titans, and The Jets. The latter three are all 8-7, yet via tiebreakers they are ranked in that specific order. I know this, but I don't know WHY. I'm not sure anyone, especially fans of those respective teams, knows the why, only the what. The tiebreakers start out relatively sensible; with head-to-head results. But in the event that's not applicable -- and it often isn't, since you obviously can't have everybody play everybody in a 16 game 32 team league -- they start breaking out the weird shit. Shit that would make a BCS computer shit itself, even though it's an inorganic silicon based entity that should be incapable of any organic chemical reaction, particularly one that produces a carbon-based mound of waste. But it does anyway.

I mean look at this shit (care of the official nfl.com webpage, probably posted by a staffer named Al-Azif):

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."

So yeah, anyone feel like going back through box scores and counting touchdowns to tell me if that's why the Titans effectively have a 1 game lead on the Jets even though they're both 8-7? Or why the 9-6 Bengals suddenly fall behind all of them if they lose and the rest win, which means even though they're 1 game ahead of those teams, they actually aren't? The Raiders can contribute to this mess by winning, unless the Broncos also lose, in which case they win the division. A Bronco win clinches the AFC West for Denver; Denver and Oakland will both be 9-7 with wins, including identical 4-2 division records and 7-5 conference records after splitting their season series 1-1. Or in other words, it's somehow the Miami Dolphins' fault that the Raiders lose the division at 9-7, but it might not be had they scored one TD less against the Raiders or allowed one more against the Tebows er I mean Broncos. Or if Miami had won one more game, which would then make it the Broncos losing the division at 9-7 and it would have been the Bills' fault.

Even the simple part of this mess isn't all that simple. At the top of the AFC, Pittsburgh has head-to-head on New England, if they both finish 12-4, but this is moot if the Ravens also finish 12-4, because they have head-to-head on Pittsburgh by beating them twice. And for that matter, they have the tiebreaker (not head-to-head, though) on New England.

Also, the Packers didn't clinch the #1 seed until they got win 14 against Chicago on Christmas Night. Why? Because had they and the 49ers both finished 13-3, the 49ers would have had the tiebreaker on The Packers. The same Packers who are defending world champions and were until very recently undefeated. Talk about counter-intuitive. San Francisco also has tiebreaker on New Orleans for the #2 seed. This tiebreaker edge over these other very good teams would suggest that the 49ers are a juggernaut or have played the world's toughest schedule and come out on top, but not really. The difference is that the 49ers beat a bad team (Tampa) while the Saints lost to an even worse one (St. Louis), and the 49ers' loss to Baltimore effectively doesn't count because Baltimore's an AFC team. Green Bay beat both St. Louis AND Tampa. Maybe they'd lose a tiebreaker to S.F. because of where the defenses are ranked? My God, the monolith is Full Of Stars.

So that's how the NFL determines tie-breakers. Amazingly, it seems that mushrooms are not involved. Although psilosybin's not actually on the banned substance list, and the NFL doesn't really care about seriously testing for PEDs anyway so maybe they are involved? If they ever have to resort to the coin toss, there'll be at least one fan base that wishes they were.

[ADDENDUM: To clarify how un-clear the tiebreaker process is, I have delved into the NFL's official site and read up on the Tennessee Titans' playoff scenario, because theirs is the weirdest. Ready? Here goes: they lose the tie breaker if the season ends with them in a 2-way tie at 9-7 with The Bengals because the Bengals beat them head-to-head. They WIN a 3-way tie at 9-7 with either the Bengals and Jets, OR a 3-way tie with the Bengals and Raiders, because head-to-head no longer matters with these teams involved, as the Titans and Bengals didn't play either of them. However, they LOSE a 4-way tie at 9-7 with the Bengals and Jets and Raiders. Fuck if I know why.]